Saturday, January 10, 2015

Self-Publishing Controversy: No, There Aren't Too Many Writers

AUTHORS NOTE: I'm relatively new to blogging and have been doing it mostly for fun.  So I haven't done much research into how to build audiences and such.  But the one piece of advice I did read was to keep posts short and frequent, which seemed to make a lot of sense.  As I was busy with other things, mostly finishing my novel, I didn't post frequently but I did work hard to try to keep it short.  However, my last post was very long and has gotten by far the most traffic.  So maybe short posts aren't always better.  I share this for two reasons.  One, it's always good to question conventional wisdom when you see evidence to the contrary.  And two, this is another long one:

There is a popular meme, which comes up often in discussions about self-publishing books, to the effect that there are too many writers. It is rarely questioned, though there is some argument as to how big of a problem it is. Some consider it a disaster, while others effectively shrug and accept that it is annoying problem that has to be lived with. There is also a great deal of handwringing that growing popularity of self-publishing is making it all worse because it’s too easy to publish a book. There are arguments that maybe things were better when wannabe writers were discouraged from pursuing careers by gatekeepers like traditional publishers and literary agents. Even some of those who have found success through self-publishing, evading the old gatekeepers, worry too many people are trying to follow them. There are suggestions that special measures must be taken to make it harder to publish along with predictions that unchecked the problem will have disastrous consequences for all. For writers, for literature, for the world.

I disagree. I don’t think there are too many writers, and I believe the world will be better off with even more writers. The best possible outcome of this self-publishing revolution will be if everyone on the planet writes a book. Writers specifically benefit from the all the other writers, and wannabe writers, who actively pursue their craft. The self-publishing revolution is one of the greatest gifts technology has brought to the world. While it undoubtedly discomforts those who benefited from scarcity, elitism and dysfunction in the old publishing world, it’s unquestionably better for society as a whole.

Now, let me be clear, this is personal. I am exactly the kind of wannabe novelist that complainers are worried about. I’m a guy who dabbled in all sorts of writing for decades, but never finished a full novel. Let alone had it published. I’m about to self-publish my first book, completely inspired by the success of others. I’m exactly the kind of person who was put off by the notion of gatekeepers, and slush piles and would have probably stayed out of the book business for the rest of my life. So I’m one of the “too many.” By stepping into the game, it’s assumed I’m going to take money and opportunity away from those who have already been playing.

The idea that more writers is a bad thing for literature, self-publishing, or even traditional publishing is not only wrong, but diverts writers from discussing the more important issues related to fair compensation, career management and growing the industry for all. So I’m going to pick the concept apart piece by piece in the unlikely hope of burying it once and for all.

The arguments against too many writers has several components. Some of it is pure snobbery, that people like me can easily join the “published author” club diminishes the respectability of “serious” authors. How dare I call myself an author, and demand attention to my work, when there are real authors who deserve more attention to their works? Others obviously just hate the idea of competition and want less of it. That is sometimes hidden by a concern that “bad writing” and “unprofessional” writers are “ruining” it for the rest. This lament was recently expressed in an article by Stephen Akey in New Republic, “There are far too many writers out there, and if the good ones are not to be buried by the bad ones, agents have an obligation to recognize and nurture talent that might otherwise go undetected.”  Rather than shoot at fish in a barrel, I’ll pass on mocking the logic behind appealing to literary agents for salvation. Stranger to me is the assumption that we will all nod our heads in sad agreement when he says “there are far too many writers out there” as if writers were an infestation of rats or a bevy of pickpockets moving through innocent crowds.

A more persuasive argument is that too many writers means that writers don’t get paid enough. If there were less writers in general, individual writers would get more money (and maybe their own literary agents to nurture them). This argument has the advantage of not appearing to be selfish. It’s presented a concern for the overall health of the business, an expression of market reality: supply and demand. If there are too many people who want to be writers, then there are too many books, too much downward pressure on book prices, and everyone gets less money. Writers can’t make a living wage, and because publishers can always find writers desperate to work, they can pay them terribly. Frequently, this argument is pursued to a reductio ad absurdum where all writers are soon forced to work for free.

There are a lot of problems with this argument, even if one were to accept that it is a correct assessment of basic market forces. Presumably as writers stopped making money, less writers would try to get into the business and the pendulum would swing the other way. That logical outcome is dismissed with the thought that there are too many writers who aren’t concerned about money and would still work, but that contradicts the idea that this is a new problem caused by the success of self-publishing and it’s promise of riches.

Which highlights another problem with the “too many writers” argument. History and reality. There have always been more people who would like to make a good living writing than there are good paying jobs for writers. Pick an era, twenty years ago, a hundred years ago, a thousand years ago. There have always been more writers than paid writing opportunities. In ancient Sumeria, there were plenty of farmers who would have happily given up the plow to pick up a stick and write poetry on clay tablets if they could make a decent buck. When books were copied by hand, I’m sure scribes thought, I could write better than this, if only I was given a chance. In the nineteen twenties and thirties, there were tons of books written about the desperate efforts of starving writers living in big city slums (some of which made the authors a lot of money). Despite all the unfulfilled dreams by the majority, in past history, many many writers have gotten very, very rich, despite the fact that there are a lot more writers who didn’t get rich. And plenty of writers were paid nice working wages, even as many, many more begged for jobs. If all writers weren’t forced to work for free back then, why do we presume they will now? Because the ratio of writers to jobs has shrunk? Instead of a hundred people that want to be writers for every one available writing job, are there now a thousand that want to be writers per writer job? Or ten thousand to one?

Unquestionably, there are more people who want to be writers than ever before, because there are more people on the planet. But aren’t there also a lot more writing jobs and money making opportunities for writers? Aren’t there more interesting non-writing jobs in other fields too? Has the ratio of desire to opportunity really changed? A larger percentage of people dream to be writers, rather than teachers, doctors, lawyers, firemen, computer programmers or whatever? I’m not so sure. And why would market forces that didn’t kick in when the ratio was a hundred to one, suddenly kick in when it becomes a thousand to one?

Then there is the problem of current reality. Several years into the self-publishing revolution, there are a lot more books being published. Some writers are getting rich, some are not. Some give their books away for free, some sell books and make a bundle. Just as one self-published writer complains that sales are down, another reports sales rising. Yet supposedly just around the corner, everything will fall apart and every writer will work for free because there are too many writers. Recently it was reported that million dollar advances to first time authors are becoming more common in the traditional publishing world. They are the "new normal." That’s right, despite there being too many writers in the world, and the fact that all these “bad” books are ruining the self-publishing market, a bunch of unknown novelists are getting a million dollars upfront from old school publishers. I guess they didn’t get the memo that soon all writers will work for free. Of course, some will say this is bad news because it will encourage more writers to jump into the business hoping to get million dollar advances, and THEN everyone will have to work for free.

The truth is that market forces don’t work the way the “too many writers” crowd proposes. The meme imagines a kind of “How Green is My Valley” world where unemployed writers are lined up outside a coal mine begging for jobs. The longer the line, the less the mine owner has to pay the workers. If the line is long enough, the workers will be forced to work for very little or even nothing. Then, with coal smudged faces, they have no choice but to shuffle back home to their starving families.

This assumes that the mine owner is an evil bastard that enjoys making workers suffer. But even if that is the case, if he pays below a certain wage the workers won’t have enough to eat or pay their rent and won’t be able to work for him. Below a certain rate, some workers may prefer to starve. This also assumes the workers have absolutely no alternatives, they can’t leave the valley searching for other work, they can’t start up their own businesses in the valley, there are no other jobs available.

In reality, even evil mine owners have to deal with the fact that they can only squeeze workers so far before they refuse to work, unionize or even riot. They have to deal with the fact that the mine owner over the hill might offer slightly better wages and lure off the best workers, or all the workers. The vast labor pool they take advantage of could move out and they are subject to community pressure. Whether it’s the local priest that decides to make an issue out of worker welfare, or state regulators that the mine owner needs to appease to keep operating. Whether there are twice as many workers wanting jobs, or hundred times as many workers, there are limits to how low he can drive down salaries before it hurts his own long term interests.

Moreover, not every boss is evil. There are plenty of bosses that pay fair or even good wages just because they feel that’s the right thing to do. There are also very good business reasons to do so. Not all workers are equal. The better ones are worth more money. Worker turnover is expensive. The cost of training an employee can be high. In fact, many smart businesses adopt a principle of paying top wages for the best employees. This, of course, puts pressure on other companies that want to pay less. Back to our mythical evil mine owner, if workers are lined up to dig coal, rather than pay less, wouldn’t it be smarter to pick the strongest, hardest working and most experienced workers? Even if that means you have to pay them a little more? Aren’t the benefits of a good worker worth the extra money? Even if you’re evil and want workers to suffer?

In situations were the boss isn’t evil, or has a philosophy of hiring the best workers, what matters most is how much money the business is making, and what can it afford to spend on labor costs. The more money the company brings in (per worker), the more generous the company can be in salaries and perks.

Who makes the most money in America? People who take jobs no one wants? No, not by a long shot. Sure, occasionally you’ll hear about good paying jobs drilling for oil in Alaska or something (which is great if you know how to drill for oil and like the cold), but the jobs that pay the least, are the jobs, NO ONE WANTS. Fast food employees are not paid very little because there are so many people that dream of working near a fry cooker. They are paid very little because people want cheap hamburgers and the economics of the industry can’t support high paying jobs for entry level employees. Janitors and hotel maids are paid lousy, not because people are lining up for the jobs, but because the labor costs of running a hotel make it hard to pay much more. Sure, in a tight labor market they might have to pay a little more per hour, or if there is a lot of nearby unemployment they might get away with a little less. But the basic pay scale will not fluctuate much for that kind of job in that kind of industry. Nor is it an issue of low skills and or little eduction. Teachers and nurses are historically and widely paid very little, in contrast to the large amount of education and trainning needed, despite frequent shortages in both professions.

On the other hand, stock brokers and investment advisers can make millions. And there are plenty of people lined up to try to get those jobs. Including many people who will intern for free. Not only do bankers and executives who work in financial markets make a lot of money, but the office workers who support them are paid well too. Many lawyers get rich, even as others worry too many people are getting law degrees. Real estate agents in good markets can also get rich, despite the fact that it takes little training or formal education. A private tennis instructor in Beverly Hills will make a lot more money than a physical education teacher in Iowa. And it’s not because no one wants to be a tennis instructor. CEO’s of big corporations have huge salaries even though there are hundreds of qualified executives who would happily take their place for a smaller salary.

The reasons some people make more money than others are complex. Much of it has to do with the value society puts on a profession. Sometimes it has to do with training and education, but not always. Sometimes people are paid more for more dangerous jobs (but not always, just ask a soldier). And yes, sometimes it does have to do with how many applicants might be interested, but only in a limited range. The main reason some people are paid more than others is they are: closer to the money.

The closer you are to money, the more likely it is you will be paid well. The bigger the money you are close to, the more you get paid. That’s why bankers and stock brokers get paid well. And the CEO’s of big companies. Is there a lot of money? How many people between you and the money? Not many, guess what, you’ll be paid more. Are you further down the food chain? Well, how much money is there at the top? If there’s enough, you’ll do okay.

This is why a real estate agent makes a lot of money. They are very close to a big financial deal. Even if they only take a couple percent off a house sale, it’s a small fortune. The house inspector that they hire is going to make less, despite having more specific expertise. This is why you can make money as the boss of a small business, but probably not as much as an executive five layers below at a big business. How much money a business makes, how many employees it requires, and how far down the food chain you are, has much more to do with how much money you will make than how many people want the job.

If you own your own hot dog stand, you’ll make more than someone who works for a guy who owns the stand. If that guy works for some other guy, you’ll make even less. If the hot dog stand makes a ton of money, you’ll still be okay. If it doesn’t, you’re in trouble.

There are lots of great jobs in the tech world, where lots of money is being made in businesses that don’t require a lot of human labor. Tales of employees being lavishly paid and showered with perks are common. Zappos, an online shoe retailer, famously treats even it’s lowest paid employees extremely well. In addition to above average compensation, the company provides no deductible medical coverage, free food, a 24 hour fitness facility and more. Does it offer all this because no one wants to work at Zappos? No, Zappos, not surprisingly for a company which treats employees so well, had over a hundred to one application to job ratio. (They recently stopped putting out job placement notices to cut back the number of applicants.) Not only do they not have trouble finding people to hire, but they famously offer to pay employees $2,000… to quit. That’s right, they only want happy employees and will pay you to move on if you don’t like it there. They raised it from $1,000 to $2,000 because they felt not enough employees were taking them up on the offer. Google, a much larger company, but one that also makes tons of money, also competes on the good pay, free food and perks front. It, famously, has a rigorous application process, searching for the best people despite a thousand to one applicant ratio. In other words, because so many people want to work at Google, rather than pay people less, they go to great lengths to figure out who is best and pay them more. Google can afford to.

It’s not just in the tech world that many, many high profit businesses pride themselves on hiring the best workers, and paying them well. They see it as a good business strategy. So question: is this philosophy less likely to be valid with writers than online shoe salesmen at Zappos, computer programers at Google, real estate agents, tennis instructors, lawyers and stock brokers?

Well, how much money does the publishing industry make? Billions. In the United States there were some ten billion in print sales last year and five billion in ebook sales alone. The world market is estimated to be over 100 Billion.  Ebook sales are expected to grow past print sales in the next five years. And that’s where self-publishing gets the biggest slice. How close is the writer of a novel to the money that novel brings in? Pretty damn close. If they self-publish, they are the boss. But even if they work as a hired gun, there should be no reason for them to be so far down. Those billions in sales come from hundreds of thousands of books, but some books sell millions and others barely register. So why should the writer of a book that sells millions get very little? Even if the work is for a big company, even if there are layers between the writer and the money. If other highly profitable businesses pay their employees well, why wouldn’t publishers? If other businesses search for the best and pay extra for the best, why wouldn’t that happen in publishing? (Like, perhaps, paying first time writers million dollar advances for hot new novels.)

Some people, strangely some writers, think these common good business practices don’t apply to writers. For example, novelist and journalist Cory Doctorow recently said:

“Artists have traditionally gotten a rotten deal from the entertainment industry, but I think that the rottenness of that deal rises and falls based on the amount of competition there is for our services. If you are in the catbird seat, if you are lucky enough to be one of those superstar artists who has negotiated a really good share of that money, then your fortunes rise and fall with the fortunes of the investor class.”

“But I don’t think that’s true of the majority of artists. I think the majority of artists get the least that the investor class can get away with. They are, from the perspective of the investor class, largely interchangeable. That is to say, if you plan to publish 15 fantasy novels this month that are going to be primarily aimed at people who are buying them in airports to read on an airplane, then really what matters is that you just have 15 novels that are of readable quality. And there’s far more than 15 people willing to write you a novel this month for it.”


Artists have traditionally gotten a rotten deal from the entertainment industry? But for the lucky ones? Those who happen to work when the business climate for deals just happened to be favorable due to competition? I presume those lucky exceptions include Steven King, J. K. Rowling, Edgar Rice Burroughs, J. R. R. Tolkien, Danielle Steel, James Patterson, Tom Clancy, John Grisham, R. L. Stine, Jackie Collins, Michael Crichton and say hundreds of other novelists. In the music world there are exceptions like Frank Sinatra, The Beatles, The Rolling Stones, Bruce Springsteen, Madonna, Elvis, etc. In comics there are exceptions like Stan Lee, Charles Schulz, Bill Watterson and Alan Moore. In film there are exceptions like Steven Spielberg, George Lucas, Walt Disney and James Cameron. So what were the competitive market conditions around Edgar Rice Burroughs and Walt Disney’s time that allowed them to succeed when other artists would soon be exploited? Were those same market forces in play when Steven King and J. K. Rowling got so lucky? Was it the same for Charles Schulz and Bill Watterson? Or did it dip in and out between? The lucky exceptions that Doctorow refers to would presumably include most popular artists.

Yes, there are plenty of true life horror stories about artists who are ripped off. There are artists who die penniless, or fail to profit from their creative efforts as others get rich. But there are many, many other artists who make millions of dollars (or simply nice living) from their creative works. There are artists, like Walt Disney and George Lucas, who invest their millions in profits into hiring and paying other artists and in creating innovations in the entertainment industry. The difference between those artists who profit from their work, and those who don’t, I believe has a lot more to do with hard work, talent and business savvy than luck. Yes, many artists do get ripped off, some even die penniless, but poor market conditions are not the main reason why.

Doctorow’s comments are part of his larger concerns about the negative effects of internet consolidation but they fit in nicely with the “too many writers” meme. If success in writing is mostly due to luck, then your odds unquestionably improve when there are less people in the lottery. And if exploiting artists makes for good business, then Doctorow is right that keeping businesses small is probably the only chance for artists to have more leverage. The problem is, not only is he wrong, but the concept, unchallenged, is dangerous for both businesses and artists.

Woe upon the publishing startup company that takes seriously Doctorow’s suggestion that “readable” will work if you’re trying to sell 15 new fantasy novels a year in airports. How does that sales pitch go with the buyer for Hudson Booksellers? Hey, we have these readable fantasy books. Who wrote them? Oh, it doesn’t matter, just some dime a dozen writers. How are those books expected to compete with established names for the few places available? A new company wouldn’t even get those books on the shelves, and passengers looking for something to read would likely skip them in favor of more famous authors. Even if the company has some inside track on book placement, even if the company uses famous brand names (first created by good writers?) and hires cheap ghost writers, it is not going to survive for long if the people on airplanes simply find the books readable. Unless by readable, Doctorow really means “pretty good,” in which case you’re going to need good writers that are able to deliver. If the books aren’t good, eventually even airplane passengers will avoid them and the brand names associated will be tarnished and the airport bookstore will look elsewhere for product. Which is to say you just threw away all your startup investments.

Not that there aren’t “readable” or even flat out “bad” books being sold in airports. But “readable” and “bad” are subjective based on the reader’s opinions. One readers “bad” is another reader’s “good.” Prominent placement and good marketing, including beautiful cover art (from a poorly paid artist?) and well written book descriptions (from a poorly paid copy writer?) can make a huge difference in impulse sales. But why, if a new or old business is going to go to all this trouble to get books onto valuable shelf spade, would they prefer to hire bad writers rather than good? To save a few extra bucks? To avoid paying royalties? Obviously, they have to make some decisions about cost vs. value, but saving money by hiring the cheapest writers possible because the quality of the writing doesn’t matter is the worse way to save money. It would be incredibly short sighted. If that is your new business, why not hope that eventually the books sell in places other than airports? Like online? Why not hope they become intellectual property worthy of movies or television shows, given all those people casually reading them on airplanes? Why give up hope for a best seller or even a classic? Would that help your start up pitch? Would that lure more investers to your company?

Obviously, not all businesses are run well. Some bosses are assholes. Some do take pleasure in exploiting people. Some do dismiss the value of talent. And, unfortunately, some businesses can make a lot of money even if they are run badly or for short term gain. But those businesses are always surpassed in the long run by businesses that are managed well. That means smart decisions are made about how to compensate employees and how to retain top talent. Zappos was sold to Amazon for $1.2 billion dollars. Google mints money. In the publishing world, giant corporations are buying up small publishers and paying first time writers million dollar advances. They aren’t doing that because its easy to hire cheap writers and anyone can write a “readable” novel.

I’ve done a variety of work in the entertainment industry, in film, television and internet startups, for decades. I started as a guy that was paid $10 an hour to teach people how to use Microsoft Word on their Macintosh. My very first freelance client said, "I'm recommending you to a friend, raise your rates."  Very quickly, my rates jumped past $100 an hour because people liked me and I did a good job.  More than one boss advised me to charge more to the next guy.  Before long, I was branching into more creative work including consulting for major entertainment companies. Working freelance is always hard, there are ups and downs.  I ran into some evil bosses along the way that took advantage of me (or tried to).  But good companies would also seek me out, not because I was cheap, but because I did a good job and worked hard. Cutting my rates to get more jobs was never a good idea. Raising my rates almost always resulted in more recommendations because I was perceived as being more valuable. And the higher my rates rose, the higher I moved up the food chain in terms of both getting closer to, or working directly for the boss. It was also more likely I would be working for a company that knew how to make a lot of money, or at least had a lot of money.

The other thing I've learned over the years, seeing some creative people fail and others rise to incredible fame and fortune is: it's not luck.  Blaming success, or failure, on luck feeds the meme that all writers are the same, and thus the only power is with the boss.  Yes, there is a lot of luck if you are born in a favorable environment.  If your parents are well connected, if you don't have to worry about money, then you have a leg up.  Equally important, if your parents encouraged your creativity, educated you well, supported you emotionally, that also helps.  Just being born near an important media center like Los Angeles or New York also helps, even if you don't have any other advantages.  But being rich, well connected or in a favorable location isn't enough.  The people who really succeed do so because they work really, insanely hard, and they bring something unique to the table creatively.  It might not be "better" than what someone else brings to the table, it might just be more popular or more timely or more easy to appreciate, but it's that unique quality what makes them successful. Those people, that combine something unique with hard work, are rare and really valuable.  Finding those people and, yes, "nurturing" them can make other people rich.  Finding those people and exploiting the hell out of them can also make you rich, if they will put up with it.  The best won't, at least not for long.  (And if you don't have something unique, hard work and craftsmanship will get you pretty damn far.)

There’s an old joke, that applies to many industries, and goes something like this:

Q: How do you make a small fortune in the entertainment business?

A: Start with a large one.


That is, a lot of wealthy people, or people with good investment connections, jump into the entertainment industry with a big pile of money to burn, and it burns up until they walk away in failure with a small pile. I’ve seen dozens of these companies come and go, I’ve worked for some of these companies, and I will tell you the problem almost always is they don’t understand how to manage creative talent. They underestimate how hard it is to get good talent, how expensive good talent is, and how hard it is to keep the best talent. The companies that succeed are always the ones that either learn how to manage creative talent (usually by paying well), or already have great creative talent. In fact, one piece of advice I frequently give to startups is that in entertainment, it’s critical they have a creative person in charge, and that almost always means a writer, former writer or someone with a keen story sense who loves writers.

The publishing business also knows this. That’s why they pay million dollar advances. That’s why they pay their best selling writers a ton of money. And that is exactly why they are helping promote the “too many writers” meme in regards to self-publishing. They hope that good writers will be fooled into questioning their own value and can be bought more cheaply. They don’t want to be forced to pay million dollar advances. They want to try to lock up the best writers to work in their coal mines, and that means convincing all writers, good and bad, that they are worthless.

Sadly, many struggling writers are quick to repeat and promote the “two many writers” meme because they are afraid of competition, they refuse to be honest about the quality or marketablity of their work, and plain old insecurity. Some of this has to with the self-questioning nature of writers in general, and some of it is just a normal part of the difficulty of working freelance, which most writers have to do. I have sympathy for writers struggling make a living, but competition will never go away in a profitable industry. And entertainment is a highly profitable business that lures the best and brightest as well as the most powerful and well connected.

Books, novels, entertainment and art, of any sort, all compete in a vast global capitalistic market whether they like it or not. While there are some tiny enclaves, non-profits, wealthily patrons and government grants, creative works are expected to compete for attention. Even an artist who works privately in secret, with no ambitions for fame or fortune, runs the risk of becoming a Henry Darger, who’s landlord made a fortune selling his work to Madonna and the Museum of Modern Art after his death. He didn’t understand it was worth millions and he died penniless. Others quickly realized it’s unique value and profited.

Those who dream of fame and fortune from their creative work, or even a decent living, have to compete in the world. That means understanding the value of what you do and fighting to get paid fairly.

If you live in a valley where the only boss in town is an asshole mine owner, get the hell out of the valley. Yes, that means you might have to move away from your beloved home town, your close-knit family and the girl/boy next door. Yes, there’s no guarantee you’ll find a better job. But if you settle to work for lousy wages in the coal mine, you have no one to blame but yourself. It sucks that you happen to have been born into a poor mining town, but a lot of things suck in the world. Don’t blame the poor suckers that live next to you.

That’s why it’s dangerous to keep repeating this mantra that too many writers means writers will work for nothing. Some idiot bosses will take it to heart and think they can get away with paying little. And some good writers will believe it and think they don’t deserve to be paid. The best way to increase the value of all writers get is for good writers to demand more money. And for the employers of writers to learn that you get what you pay for, like in any other profession. Companies that don’t want to pay good hard working writers, and end up hiring bad or lazy ones, will go bankrupt quicker, which makes more room for the good companies to prosper and hire more good writers. What happens to all the bad writers? Well, in the long run they never would have been happy (or well paid) until they upped their game. So maybe this will be motivation for them to work on their craft and job seeking skills. Or move on to something else.

The only writers who don’t have to worry about how to make a living are the ones that were born rich, or became rich through other means. And guess what, you have to compete against them too. And you have to compete against those writers who happen to have been born with better connections that you to influential people in the publishing world. There are far more poor people than rich people, powerless people than powerful. It is very hard to move up from one social economic status to another. That fact of life plays a much bigger role in holding struggling writers back that the dreams of other struggling writers. The truth is that those desperate writers trying to climb up next to you are the best allies you have to get to the top.

Which is the other dangerous thing about the “two many writers” meme. In addition to trying to convince writers that they should devalue themselves, it works to convince writers to fight with each other rather than stand together to improve their lives.

Finally, at least for now, while it is obvious that smart businesses hire good people and pay well, it is often argued that creative workers are different from other workers because they will, at least sometimes, work for free. Some view writing as a hobby, and some will work free in hopes of a big payoff later. Both things are absolutely true. But neither of those are bad things, they are actually very good things, at least in self-publishing. Because not only is it not true that more writers means writers get paid less, but actually more writers means writers get paid more.

I’ll cover this in my next post.

Saturday, January 3, 2015

Kindle Unlimited: Which Conspiracy Theories Should You Believe?

Kindle Unlimited, Amazon’s ebook subscription service, was launched back in July of this year and while all the data isn’t in, a lot of self-publishers are complaining it has hurt their sales and/or revenue. As a result, some famous Amazon supporters have been pulling out of the program, at least temporarily. It’s not clear that KU is hurting the revenue of all self-published writers. Some authors even say they see improved revenue and better numbers in both in borrows and sales. For example, Robert Gregory Browne commented on the Passive Voice: “Kindle Unlimited makes me money… my sales haven’t suffered and I’ve at least doubled borrows.” Moreover, if you charge less than $1.99 for your books, you make more for a borrow than a sale through Kindle Unlimited. This is a big advantage for short fiction and writers who price first in a series at $.99.

While it is not a good thing if any writers incomes are hurt, this is a great opportunity for the self-publishing community to unite by sharing information and strategy to the benefit of all. Many writers are doing exactly that, generously revealing their own personal sales information, explaining what is and isn't working, and discussing future plans.

Personally, I think Kindle Unlimited is a very interesting new tool for writers. I can see how it might help some and hurt others, but overall, I believe that businesses grow and improve by embracing change so it seems like an exciting development. I am about to self-publish my first book, Eve's Hungry, and I intend to put it into KU. In fact, KU has solved a lot of issues for me in terms of pricing strategy. Since this is my first book, discovery, gaining new readers, will be my primary focus. Much of the conventional advice is that if I want new readers I should make the book available for as little as possible: $2.99, $.99 or even perma-free. Others say that free and $.99 don't work on Amazon anymore. Others, notably Kristine Kathryn Rusch say that underpricing a full length novel devalues it in the long term and suggests a minimum of $6. Since my book is a real novel, over 70,000 words, I'm tempted to take her advice. So Kindle Unlimited solves both problems. I can put my book up for $5.99, so I don't seem to be devaluating it, but it will also be free to KU subscribers to add to discovery. That KU requires exclusivity is actually a bonus to me. Putting out my first book is complicated enough. I'm happy to go all in with Amazon for this first one. As I get results I'll share them on this site.

It would be nice if most discussions about Kindle Unlimited focused on real data, on individual choices, and what is best for self-publishers in the immediate future. Unfortunately, the anti-Amazon crowd, particularly those who don't like self-publishing and view it as a threat to the established publishing community, see this an an opportunity. They are quickly co-opting the debate for their own purposes by throwing out misinformation, conspiracy theories, and wild predictions of the future.

Those of us who don't see Amazon as evil are compelled to make some effort to defend it. So we are thrust into a debate about Amazon's good or bad intent with Kindle Unlimited, and where it might really be headed in the distant future. Sadly, once again the issue becomes framed through the lens of how it helps or hurts traditional publishing vs. self-publishing. Someday, over the rainbow, self-publishers might be allowed to conduct their business without it being perceived as a fight between them and traditional publishing. But, for today, Amazon critics are determined to use the KU debate to refight old battles they lost.

This is going to be a long post, so feel free to jump off now and go to the links above of real writers talking about real facts, rather than general speculation and conspiracy theories. I don't mind, really.

While some of the people complaining about Kindle Unlimited are writers who are directly affected by it, many are what I will call PPP, or Pundits Protecting (traditional) Publishing. These are the same group of people who originally slammed self-publishing for creating a "volcano of shit," and who openly pinned for it to be shoved into ghettos where no one would see it. These are the same ones who, during the Amazon/Hachette dispute, spun around and demanded self-publishers join Hachette's side to save literature and stop Amazon. When self-publishers didn't join Hachette's side, or offered sensible compromises, they were attacked and belittled with absurd arguments like "thinking Amazon was their friend." The PPP made sure that reasonable discussions about ebook pricing dissolved into attacks on self-publishing for undercutting prices. They frequently suggested that self-publishers had nothing to offer readers but free and cheap books. When the Amazon/Hachette dispute was settled with a whimper, despite their efforts to paint it as a life or death struggle for the future of literature, the PPP tried to claim it was a victory for agency and price fixing and another nail in the coffin of self-publishing.

So it shouldn't be a huge surprise that the same group that has always been antagonistic to Amazon, and self-publishing, are smacking their lips with savory schadenfreude as they hope self-publishers are suffering. They are smugly recycling their old failed arguments into a “I told you so” lesson. Presumably, self-publishers should have collectively turned on Amazon and supported giant print publishers prior to their ebook income streams being hurt by KU. How that would have helped them, or fixed any issues with KU, is anyone’s guess.

With KU in the news, the PPP hope to convince self-publishers to act against their own interests and for the benefit of the traditional publishing world they support. Their goal is to protect the status quo: rich successful writers who don't like competition, literary agents who don't like the independence self-publishing gives writers, publishing executives who don't want their choices questioned, and giant publishing corporations that want to maintain their dominance over the industry. There is no consideration that some self-publishers might foolishly take their advice and get seriously hurt, like the student in The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie who runs off to join the wrong side of the Spanish Civil War. Self-publishers who pull out of Kindle Unlimited, or pull some books, or don't join it in the first place, should do so because it is good for their business, not because the mouthpieces of larger business interests convince them that Amazon is an evil that must be stopped.

Since the actual problem isn’t sufficient to terrify self-publishers into hating Amazon, it’s necessary to forecast future doom by predicting that KU payouts will inevitably shrink to nothing and the service will destroy all ebook sales. While they're at it, why not recycle old arguments like that too many writers are flooding the market and creating a "glut." And that cheap ebooks devalue writing and will soon force everyone to work for free. Those predictions didn’t come true when they were made years before, but with KU maybe they will. And why not suggest that evil Amazon knew KU would hurt self-publishers and introduced it because they view books as a "loss leader" so they can sell other stuff like diapers.

Let’s return to reality for a moment. We don’t know for sure yet whether KU is a net positive or negative for self-publishers. Obviously, new writers entering the market can’t know whether it helps or hurts, since they don’t have any data to make a comparison. We also can’t know for sure if any individual drop off in sales is completely related to KU, or if there might be other factors related to the author's work or the market in general. We can’t know if any drop in revenue is a temporary effect of KU as it starts up and readers test it out, or part of a troubling long term trend. We also don’t know if most writers can solve their issues by modifying which books they put into the program and which they keep out. Finally, we don’t know if Amazon itself may make changes in the program to solve most of the complaints.

What we do know, is that the anti-Amazon army isn’t going to wait for data, and is going to do everything they can to try to terrify self-publishers into panicking. They’re going to try to convince writers that pulling out of KU is the “right” thing to do for literature and humanity. They want to frighten off writers who are considering self-publishing by saying, falsely, that the entire market is collapsing. And they want everyone to pressure Amazon into making changes that might not be good for Amazon, and might be worse for self-published writers, but good for the big publishing interests.

I have faith that the larger self-publishing community won’t fall for this propaganda any more than they did during the Hachette dispute. I’m also sure Amazon isn’t going to panic and make any hasty moves. However, I think it’s important to try to counter these arguments before they can gain ground and possibly hurt some innocents along the way who believe them.

Let’s start with a quick review of the whole Amazon vs. traditional publishing argument. What’s wrong with traditional publishing? Nothing. But, historically, there’s a lot of things wrong with the way the very biggest traditional publishing companies (now merged into the big five) have been behaving. Starting with the fact that they have colluded for years to treat many, many writers terribly with unfair "standard" contracts, fuzzy accounting, and poor handling of their books. Not all writers, just the most vulnerable ones, and that makes it worse. Toss in that they have historically treated women writers miserably and primarily favor white males from certain socioeconomic classes that mirror the executives making publishing decisions. Add that they have been horrible to genre writers, who bring in the bulk of their profits, and try to prop up pretentious literary darlings no one wants to read and in the processes have driven down the market for all books. Let’s not forget they did everything they could to sabotage independent book stores in favor of giant book chains. They also treat readers badly by gouging them with high prices, which also hurts the overall market. But the most important thing is this:

They won’t publish your book.

Okay, now Amazon. There’s stuff about them not treating warehouses workers as good as they should, okay, bad there. They were really mean to those rich writers who took out the $100,000 ad in the New York Times. And I’m sure there’s some other stuff. But the most important thing is this:

They will publish your book.

And they allow you to make money from it. That's a pretty nice thing. And no one really did it before Amazon. At least, not in a way that gave you a good chance of making money. Right now, it's easy to take that for granted, but it could have gone another way. Amazon could have made deals with the big publishers that would have completely shut self-publishers out of the ebook market. And, in retrospect, I'm sure the big five wish they had. Sure, thanks to the internet, there would be other companies that would sell self-published books, but they would not be attached to the largest online market in the world. And that would have dramatically lowered the chances of any self-publisher making a living.

Now you might think you deserve more money, or you just might want more money, but at least Amazon gives you the opportunity to make money. The big publishers won't. That is, they won't publish the vast majority of writers. (And they can't under their current business model.) Amazon will publish anyone and that is one of the main reasons the big publishers hate them. They don't want the competition that self-publishing brings. And if they could force Amazon to stop selling self-published books, or shove them into a ghetto that one could find, they would do it in a heartbeat. (That might have been part of what the Hachette dispute was really about.)

Now, for the sake of argument, let’s just assume that overall KU is currently hurting more self-publishers (at least in terms of revenue) than it is helping. Let’s go a step further and assume that those writers, who have lost revenue, would have done better if KU hadn’t been created, and would do better, at least in the short term, if KU never existed. And, just for giggles, let’s assume Amazon is not a super villain that randomly kills their loyal sidekicks to prove how evil they are. I’m not saying Amazon is anyone’s friend, but let’s work on the assumption that they are a business, and are more concerned with overall profits and growth than simply destroying writers lives because they don’t care about literature. And let's assume that they didn't facilitate the entire rise of self-publishing, just to suddenly try to kill it off to sell more diapers.

So why did Amazon create Kindle Unlimited? Why didn't it just leave everything the way it was? Shouldn’t they have known that it would hurt a lot self-publishers income?

The notion of subscription services has always been popular with big corporations. Amazon already has one with Amazon Prime. It's a great way to mint money, if they work. But most of them don't work. The giant record labels have tried for many years to get people to subscribe to music services, but for the most part they have failed except for the free ones. Yet the huge success of Netflix in movies and television has inspired a lot of talk about whether that model would work with books. The technology for doing it with ebooks is even more simple. There are a lot of investment bankers and startup executives (who really don't care about writers) who are willing to throw a lot of money out to test the concept.

Amazon wisely tries to stay ahead of the competition. They had already been experimenting with ebook subscriptions by allowing Prime members to borrow a very limited number of books. If Amazon had wanted to jump into subscription services in a big way, they could have easily done it long before anyone else. And frankly, if Amazon wanted to hurt self-publishers and make all books free, they could have just turned Prime into a full ebook subscription service. But Amazon didn't. They set up a separate service with Kindle Unlimited that costs an additional monthly payment and is certain to have less subscribers than Prime. Why? Probably because they are making a ton of money through ebook sales and they didn't want to rock the book. This PPP invention that Amazon views ebooks sales as a lot leader is absurd. Apple, yes. Amazon, no. Apple charges a big premium for their hardware, so they don't care as much about making money on content. They do make a lot of money on it, but their main goal is to sell hardware. Amazon is the opposite. Kindles are very low priced, often sold at or below cost. Amazon wants to make money on content. (There is no profitable business model where getting free books makes people buy other stuff like lawn mower blades.) Hugh Howey is correct when he says that Amazon is primarily concerned with helping their customers. But they do want their customers to give them as much money as possible. As a result, I think they hesitated to launch a subscription service, which might hurt their overall ebook sales, and angered self-publishers, until they were forced to.

What forced them too? The launch of ebook subscription services Scribd and Oyster. This was bad news for Amazon for a bunch of reasons. Scribd and Oyster are typical investment startups and are in a position to lose money for quite a long time, as long as they can gain market share and prove they have some potential. Amazon is also famously willing to lose money to gain market share, but since these companies are just starting, their share is small and they can afford to lose more per customer. They also don't have to worry about cannibalizing their own ebook sales, they don't sell ebooks. Amazon does. I'll repeat: Amazon does not want ebook sales to tank. There is no logical reason to believe they do. But Amazon had to respond. For two reasons: one, if Scribd and Oyster took off in a big way, Amazon might lose BOTH markets anyway, second, if they took off, they could start offering ebook sales and who knows, maybe even sell diapers.

Okay, so Amazon was in a fix. But what about self-publishers, what do they care if Amazon is hurt by Scribd and Oyster? Isn't competition good? Isn't it better if there are more services wanting our ebooks? Yes, in some cases it is good. iBooks, despite Apple's eagerness to cozy up with big publishing, is generally a good thing, it provides some alternatives to Amazon. Nook is okay too. But Scribd and Oyster, in my opinion, are poisonous. Self-publishers should not be rushing to support them, particularly at the expense of Amazon. Why?

They won't publish your book.

But wait, aren’t a lot of self-publishers putting they’re books on those services to “diversify?” No. They are putting their books on Smashwords. And Smashwords is putting them on Scribd and Oyster. Because both of those services require an aggregator in order to accept self-published work. That, to me, is bad. Oh, Scribd, at least, will allow you put up stuff for free, but if you want to make money, you have to give a cut of it to an aggregator like Smashwords. (Now explain to me again how Amazon is secretly planning to make writers work for free when they don’t allow free books and writers have to jump through hoops to get perma-free? Meanwhile, Scribd will take free books, but makes writers jump through hoops (signing with Smashwords) if they want to make money? Scribd is the good guy?) I assume there are some writers who are happy with Smashwords, but I’ve read a lot of bad stuff. I was particularly concerned with the issue of them forcing self-publishers into a hidden ghetto for libraries that used Overdrive’s service. Smashwords CEO Mark Coker’s explanation of how that happened, and their slow efforts to correct it, always sounded flimsy to me. Was Smashwords testing out the self-publishing ghetto big publishers dream of creating?

But the biggest thing is I fundamentally disagree with the idea that self-publishers should be forced to use an aggregator (a middleman) in order to get on these services, or any book service. Apple used to require an aggregator, and as much of an Apple fanboy as I am, I was very annoyed with it. Thankfully they’ve switched and now allow you to directly set up accounts. (Hmm… did Apple switch only because the DOJ forced them to keep arms length from big publishing?) Amazon has already proved self-publishing can be done without an aggregator, so in my opinion that should be the model self-publishers support. Let's not go backwards. The entire purpose of self-publishing is to get rid of middlemen, and aggregators are nothing but middlemen. Aggregators should offer something extra (marketing?) to self-publishers to earn their cut, not simple access.

So I would be against Smashwords even if I hadn’t heard bad things about them. (If you need an aggregator, check out some of the other options like Bookbaby and draft2Digital.) But Mark Coker makes me even more nervous every time he opens his mouth. Coker has plenty of reasons to hate Amazon, they won’t play ball the way he wants, but much of his commentary during the Hachette debate was pretty transparently false. And naturally he’s all over Kindle Unlimited as being the first step in dooming writers to working for free. Despite supposedly being out there fighting for self-publishers, most of his commentary is very traditional publisher friendly. He stays on point with a lot of their false arguments about not only Amazon, but about a glut in content (which is particularly odd for someone who supposedly makes his living helping create that content).

So, everyone thinks Amazon has a secret plan to turn on self-publishers? I don’t think so. But I have my own conspiracy theories. One is that Mark Coker's end game is the hope of selling his company to one of the big five. His writings sure don't seem to come from someone invested in the long term health of the self-publishing movement. Another theory is that the investors of Scribd and Oyster see the big five as playing a huge part in their end games, either out and out sales, mergers or investment. And the big five? I think they are frantically searching for a secret plan to screw self-publishers. Because it’s not enough that they don’t want to publish your book. They don’t want you to publish your own book. That's what is behind all this PPP talk about there being a glut that needs to be stopped. The glut, of course, is all those writers who are self-publishing.

But how can they stop you? Amazon has made it too easy. Well, first, they have to knock Amazon down. So that’s part of all the efforts to use big media to create hysteria against Amazon. Second, they know now that they can’t stop you, so the only hope is to force your books into a ghetto where no one sees them. (Kind of like what Smashwords and Overdrive did with self-published books that wanted library access. Hmm… connection?) To build those ghettos, they will need a lot of leverage with the biggest players in the ebook markets. They tried to get leverage over Apple, but the DOJ stopped them there. They tried to get leverage in the Amazon/Hachette dispute, but that failed too. So, guess what, next they might try to get leverage in subscription services which might be the new frontier for ebooks.

None of the big five publishers have made their ebooks available on Kindle Unlimited. That’s why Amazon has to pay full sale price for the few traditionally published books KU does offer. Two of the big five have made deals with Scribd: HarperCollins and Simon and Schuster. And it looks like Macmillian may soon follow. It would not surprise me if all five did. Undoubtedly one of the reasons the big publishers are willing to work with Scribd is simply to undercut Amazon. (Macmillian CEO John Sargent opening admits that lowering Amazon’s market share is a key priority.) I think it’s also possible that the big publishers insisted Scribd only allow self-published books from an aggregator, or that was something Scribd offered out as an incentive on its own to placate them.

So, what might be the fantasy that big publishers have for how subscription services change the business of ebooks?

1. Services like Scribd and Oyster (anyone but Amazon) dominate.

2. Big publishers make lots of money on those services from their backlists, but protect most of their new releases with tiered pricing. (Keeping them off the services until they have earned as much as possible.)

3. The success of these favored services hurt Amazon’s ebook market share. It’s okay if it kills a lot of (Amazon) ebook sales as long as the big five make the money back elsewhere.

4. Amazon, struggling to compete against the new services, is forced to make deals with the big five the way the big five want them or lose the ebook market all together.

5. Self-publishers must use aggregators to access the services. Bonus if big publishers can force Amazon to use an aggregator too. Self-published material is less prominent on subscription services by design.

6. Big publishers BUY AGGREGATORS. Self-publishers can’t access any major services without an aggregator. Aggregators make big publishers lots of money from self-publishers, which can be used to think up other ways to screw self-publishers. (Raising fees, charging for discovery, charging to put your book up, forcing you to sign over rights, etc.)

Beyond Smashwords, you need no other reason to believe that big publishers are evil, or at least one is evil, than the fact that Penguin Random House bought and operates Authors Solutions. Authors Solutions really is the super-villain of evil publishing organizations. It is so slimy and toxic, it is difficult for me to comprehend why even an evil publishing company would want to own it if they had any other options, which Penguin Random House clearly does. So why did they buy it? Is the amount of money they steal from little old ladies who want to be writers really worth it? Is it worth all the lawsuits and bad press? Really?

It’s the kind of thing that could eventually end up with a Congressional investigation like when Famous Writer’s School was finally exposed back in the 1970’s. Moreover, in an internet age, it’s very hard to maintain that kind of scam, which is why they are now focusing on writers in third world countries. It makes no sense to me. The only way it would make sense for me is:

They see it as the future of self-publishing.

How do the big publishers stop self-publishing? They don’t, they just control it. They make sure that anyone who wants to self-publish has to work through aggregators like Smashwords or services like Authors Solutions. But those companies have to have something to offer self-publishers, other than the long con. That would be access. If you want your book in a major market, either you pay a bundle to Authors Solutions, or you pay a percentage to Smashwords. If not, you don’t get on Scribd or Oyster and whatever other services dominate in the future.

But Kindle Unlimited screws all that up. If it becomes the biggest subscription service, or at least a good competitor, that worse case scenario plan isn’t going to work. So if we want to talk conspiracy theories rather than real data, top of my list would be to worry about the relationship Scribd has with big publishers. Even if I’m wrong about all those concerns, or if they don’t happen because big publishers can’t get enough leverage, there are very good reasons to prefer the Kindle Unlimited model over Scribd and Oyster.

Amazon is still very much in the business of getting people to buy books, in addition to borrowing them. A reader who borrows a book by Writer Smith, and likes it, can click a button and see a bunch of other books by Writer Smith for sale on Amazon (I know, I've done it and bought books that way). Scribe and Oyster are focused on subscription only. This is a huge advantage to working with Amazon. Unless writers expect to earn all their income from subscription services (dominated by traditional publishing interests) it’s a lot to expect readers to leave Oyster to see what you have available on Amazon. I even think some readers might enjoy a book so much they borrow it and then buy it. I’m already struggling with the 10 book limit on Kindle Unlimited, and I can certainly see buying some books to keep that I borrowed. (I'm on the edge of buying You Only Live Twice, even though it's in my borrow list, because I want to free up the space and I don't have time to read it right now. It's something I'd like to own in ebook form anyway.)

Here’s another important thing to consider in regard to the traditional vs. self-published war. One of the big criticisms of Kindle Unlimited is that it pays from a pool instead of a fixed amount per book. I’ll admit I’m suspicious of that business model, nor am I placated by the idea that Amazon offers special bonuses to “star” authors who sell in the top brackets. (And I’m not a fan of Amazon Studios, which encourages writers to work in a kind of American Idol style contest.)

But I do understand why it makes sense for Amazon to have a fixed pool, and why it was the best approach for them as they test out the new market. I also appreciated that they have added to the pool a couple times to raise the payouts. As others have pointed out, the higher Oyster and Scribd payouts are probably not sustainable if readers actually use their services. Scribd CEO Trip Adler has publicly said that his subscribers on average only read one or two books a month. It appears they are shooting for the “gym membership” model, where most people sign up thinking they will read books, but end up not using it and then forget to cancel. In other words, just short of a scam. (Try asking about a gym membership without feeling dirty afterwards.) Pursuing a kind of sleazy business model isn’t particularly surprising coming from Scribd, which originally planned to make money by violating copyright and encouraging ebook piracy before they switched to subscription and struck deals with some big publishers.

So the question for self-publishers is: do you want to support (over Amazon) a kind of scammy service that pays more for books, but hopes that people won’t read them? How are you going to make money off people who don’t read your books? Scribd will. You won’t. The less people read, the more money Scribd and Oyster make. Amazon, however, has committed to paying out a pool regardless. So the less books people borrow, the more money that will be sent to the authors of the books that are read. Is that so bad? Maybe that is a fairer way after all. So both Amazon, and writers, are invested in making Kindle Unlimited work. Making it a service people want to use. You can make money off of the borrows and also possibly sell your books that aren’t in the service. If Scribd emerges as a service that people pay into but don’t use, not only will you not make any money, but it won’t help you sell books and won’t help promote you as a writer.

If books aren’t being borrowed, doesn’t that hurt the big publishers too? Not necessarily. Because we don’t really know what kind of deals they struck with Scribd and Oyster. It’s quite possible, maybe even likely, that they made deals like the record labels did with music subscription services. The reason musicians are making so little from music subscriptions is because the record labels get paid first, and a lot more. It’s quite possible that the big publishers are getting paid a fee just for allowing access to their libraries. Or they get a share of overall subscription sales, or minimum guarantees. In other words, they might be in on the scam. They might be fine if no one borrows or reads books and authors don’t get paid. (Which might account for Scridb requiring a higher percentage than Amazon to qualify a “read.” 30% over 10%. Yes, that’s right, Amazon pays at 10%, you get nothing at Scribd for that.)

Traditional publishers already have deals to take the bulk of ebook revenue from their writers, so maybe, in addition to getting a piece off the top, they want borrows. But there they have an advantage over self-publishers too. Traditional publishers price their books higher on average. So since Scribd pays 60% of the sale price, on average traditional publishers will get more money. If, say, there are 50,000 borrows of big publisher books that average $8.99 per book, and 50,000 borrows of self-published books that average $3.99 per book, the big publishers get almost twice as much money for the same number of borrows. (Not to mention Smashwords, or another aggregator, takes 15% of the self-pubished share.) If that becomes the model for the future, big publishers win. Self-publishers make the service look appealing because there are lots of books to choose from, but they end up getting a lot less money.

But don’t the big publishers get more per book from Kindle Unlimited too? Yes, but they have a lot less books in the system. Most of Kindle Unlimited is self-published, with a few big titles, like Harry Potter thrown in to make it appealing. So, if 100,000 books get borrowed on Kindle Unlimited, its quite likely most of them will be self-published. In fact, its almost a reverse situation with big publishing helping self-publishing. The big name borrows, like Harry Potter, lure people into subscribing. But once they have a subscription, they mostly have to choose self-published. That may be what the big publishers really fear, and that’s why the PPP is trying to talk self-publishers into abandoning Kindle Unlimited. If Kindle Unlimited is a huge success, and mostly features self-published material, that could be really dangerous to big publishing's long term plans.

There are a lot of other factors to consider. We can’t really know how these different services are treating discovery. Because Scribd is more invested in keeping the big guys happy, will their search favor their books? Or particular books? Will that one or two book borrows a month only be best sellers from the big five? It all gets down to issues of trust, and so far, I see no reason for Scribd or Oyster to be invested in helping self-publishers. And I see a lot of logical reasons for Amazon to be. Not to mention, historically they’ve been pretty good to self-publishers.

Where is this all going? There are two very different possibilities, and some room in the middle. Regardless, long term I hope Amazon remains the major player.

Subscription services could be a bust. They could just turn out not to work on a big enough level to pay off in a serious way. It could be that Scribd and Oyster have to pay too much for their big publishing deals and can’t afford to survive. In that case, Amazon might fold Kindle Unlimited into Prime and it will just be a little perk for their best customers. If so, self-publishers can return their focus to sales and use what is left of Kindle Unlimited for short material and as a kind of perma-free for sample books and first in series. Thus, a lot of this drama about KU will have been for nothing.

The other possibility is that subscription services really work. In that case, they might seriously gut sales and not being in a subscription will mean self-publishers won’t see any revenue. If that is the case, then those who complained that Kindle Unlimited hurt their sales, would eventually have gotten hurt by Scribd and Oyster even if Amazon hadn’t created KU. If sales really drop across the board, it doesn’t matter which subscription service caused it, writers will have to adapt. If that is the case, I would prefer to have Amazon remain one of the big players in subscription, rather than have big publisher friendly (and dependent) Oyster and Scribd completely in charge.

Don't forget, the "loss leader" argument against Amazon might actually work the other way around. Cheap diapers are what drive people to splurge on ebooks. More likely, because of Amazon's size, because they are so diverse and have so many sources of income, they can stand up to the big publishers and are willing to fight for self-publishers, who are also good customers for all their other products. And keeping self-publishers happy might bring Amazon a lot of good will. That glut of writers who are publishing books no one buys? Maybe when they check their sales they wander off to buy lawn mower blades… and other writer's ebooks.

Ultimately, writers should make decisions based on real facts, not conspiracy theories, even my own. If being in Kindle Unlimited doesn't make you money, or hurts your other sales, get out. If being in Oyster or Scribd, or Smashwords, brings in income, go with them. If you're not sure, try to find some actual data. But if we’re going to look into the dark hearts of big corporations, or into the future through a crystal ball, Amazon still seems like the closest thing to long term ally self-publishers have.


Saturday, November 22, 2014

New Episode of Eve's Hungry: Spoils of War

I just posted a new episode of Eve's Hungry:

Episode Thirteen: Spoils of War

It's getting close to the thrilling conclusion (which I promise is great) and then I'm going to publish the completed work as a novel on Amazon.  The series has been up for several years and its had over 5,000 page views.  Which isn't a heck of a lot by internet standards, but I don't think it's bad given I've done virtually no promotion other than a Twitter feed and my own Facebook page.  Will any of these page views translate into book sales?  I have no idea.  But it's been fun posting and I hope there are some people that are enjoying the series.

The final chapters are all roughed out and will be done soon.  Yes, for a while I wasn't sure if I would finish it, but we're past all that.  So there is still time to get on the train.  If you haven't been following, here's the link for the first episode.  Enjoy!

Eve's Hungry: Episode One: The Sword Dancer


Monday, November 10, 2014

Fear-O-Matic: Keith Gessen Attacks Amazon for Vanity Fair

The Amazon fear mongering continues with a "new" piece of "reporting" in Vanity Fair, "The War of Words" by Keith Gessen.  And as long as the fear mongering continues, you can count on the faithful Amazon Fear-O-Matic to munch it into bite size chunks for easy consumption.

EDITED TO ADD: (While the Fear-O-Matic is kind of a joke, it's based on a real issue.  I didn't pick these 10 talking points at random.  I went through all the anti-Amazon articles over the last six months, many of which are long and kind of pointless, and tried to identify what common issues they raised.  A real pattern quickly emerged, and not one inherent in general anti-Amazon or anti-technology craziness.  It became very clear this is a managed media campaign and writers are being told what to focus on so the echo chamber fully repeats.)

For those of you who aren't familiar with how to launch a big media campaign to convince the public to care about something they don't care about, here's how it works.  Start by planting a "serious journalism" piece in a major magazine.  It should be something like a reporter investigating and coming to the conclusion that, based on his research, "Amazon might be evil and out to destroy literature."  Then you follow it up with as many editorials, commentary and opinion pieces as possible with talking (or writing) heads shouting, "Yes!  That reporter is right.  Amazon is evil!  And it will destroy literature."

See how nice that works?  Someone who is supposedly "objective" and a "real journalist" investigates.  Supposedly they don't have any agenda but to find the truth.  Then they present their information and pundits pounce on the "revelations."  Of course, the key to this is to coordinate it all in advance and make sure all the key talking points are hit.  The reporter already knows what he's going to find, and simply goes out and tries to prove it, usually by interviewing people who are in on the con and will tell him what he wants to hear.  Then all he has to do is avoid any information that might disprove his conclusions.

As fans of the Fear-O-Matic know, the original "serious reporting" anti-Amazon piece was by George Packer, which came out about six months ago and gave birth to dozens of opinion pieces attacking Amazon.  But I guess the PR team running the Amazon hate machine felt the need to relubricate the media sphere with another "serious" reporting piece, and thus Keith Gessen and Vanity Fair were called into action.

The piece is written to appear to be objective while making sure to hit all the usual Amazon hate talking points.  It appears objective enough that a lot of the commentators on the Passive Voice praised it for covering both sides, including Hugh Howey.  To achieve this appearance of objectivity, Gessen borrows heavily from Packer by making the piece very, very long.  He starts with a lot of history and somewhat neutral backstory and then sneaks in the hate in here and there by quoting haters and adds an extra big dollop of his own hate toward the end.  I doubt the PR machine cares if people read it all, and probably they hope no one does carefully.  So being long actually helps.  People skip over the actual article and only read the opinions of later pundits to point at it's "objectivity" and then respin the hate stronger.

But that's where they Fear-O-Matic comes in, it tosses out all the clutter and focuses on the true message.  Let's take a look:



THE WAR OF WORDS - FOM SCORE: 7.5

Gessen hits an excellent 7.5 on the Fear-O-Matic, making sure to cover ALL ten anti-Amazon talking points!  He scores a little less than the 8.5 Franklin Foer got with his terrifically hateful piece for the New Republic, primarily because Gessen waffles on the (widely discredited) idea that Amazon has a monopoly and that big publishers are helpless (which is also absurd).  Interestingly, he gets the exact same score as the other "serious journalism" piece by Packer.  It's difficult to really pile on the hate when you're trying to appear objective.  But, to Gessen's credit, he did manage to slip in some extra hate against self-publishers and "kinda" demanded government action, two points Packer didn't originally cover.

FOM READING BETWEEN THE LINES:

Now, I don't want to go out of my way to attack Mr. Gessen, only his writing.  You can do your own Google search and come to your own conclusions about him.  He does have some "serious journalist" credentials.  And just because he went to Harvard, it would be unfair to assume he's exactly the kind of person Clay Shirky was referring to as a "member of the Sancerre-swilling East Coast Media Elite" who feel their privileged status threatened by Amazon's willingness to let the unwashed masses publish books with permission.  Yet, given that he is investigating whether Amazon is destroying literature, I think it's fair to point out that he is, according to Vanity Fair itself, not only a "reporter" but a handsome young literary darling of the traditional publishing world.  Not just any handsome young literary darling, he is, according to Vanity Fair, one who would have been a "made man" if it wasn't for the nasty old internet who doesn't seem to appreciate Harvard and being told which writers should now be admired and loved.  I guess he was really flamed after his first book was traditionally published.  Does that mean he already has an agenda against technology?  Or that he might not approach the subject of Amazon, technology and self-publishing objectively?  That he might be prone to see the world of technology as an evil place ruled by a super-villian like Dr. No?  We can't know for sure based on his past.  (I mean, who trusts what Vanity Fair says anyway?)  We also can't know for sure that he won't be objective because he wants a good deal for his next literary masterpiece from a big publisher.  But we certainly can know that this particular piece is highly biased against technology, is snobbishly dismissive of self-publishing and is pretty much what you would expect from an unappreciated literary darling who has been bruised by the internet.

Despite being presented as a journalistic investigation, there is little real reporting or new information. (Other than long quotes from the Gessen’s own literary agent.)  While it pretends to cover both sides, there is absolutely nothing negative about big publishing.  The DOL conspiracy is portrayed as their innocent attempts to deal with Amazon's heavy handed tactics.  There is nothing about big publishers forcing “standard” contracts on writers and other bad practices, which logically should be part of the debate.  There is nothing negative about the consolidation of big publishing houses into even bigger media conglomerates.  He even portrays it as good news that there is even more consolidation, because maybe that will help big publishing fight Amazon.  Like many other Amazon fear mongers, somehow the end of advances to writers means the end of civilization. That meme has been discredited, over an over, but Gessen never questions it.

Not surprisingly for a handsome literary darling, while he mentions that there is a culture war at the bottom of it all, it's clear which side he is on.  AU and Douglas Preston are presented as trying to protect culture, they are people who  “feel very strongly about books.” Self-publishers are dismissed as people who rise “to the defense of their benefactor (Amazon).” Self-publishers are also bitter people who, when they “lashed out at traditional publishing, they often spoke with the passion of the dispossessed. ” Is it possible self-publishers also care about art and literature, but disagree about Amazon’s role?  Nope, self-publishers arguments “… were self-interested or disingenuous or silly…”  

There are two particularly interesting tidbits buried in all the manipulated history, empty reporting and hidden commentary.  Overall, the piece smacks of smugness, with Gessen making an occasional snarky aside that would seem to hint that he knows he's writing in favor of the wrong side.  (For example, admitting that the loss of book advances personally concerns him more, since it will effect his future writing deals, than the destruction of Western Civilization.)  Not surprisingly, he doesn't actually interview or quote anyone on the self-publishing side.  But he does reprint a section of Hugh Howey and J. A. Konrath's Change.org petition so he can mock it later as being "silly."  Why not actually interview Howey or Konrath, who are easy to get a hold of?  Well, that would require time consuming reporting and leave less space for long quotes by his own agent.  And it would actually treat them as popular writers with valid opinions on book publishing, rather that those crazy internet people that just don't appreciate real literature (see Vanity Fair article on Gessen not being appreciated by the internet just because his book was about Harvard).  

Here's part of the quote from the petition with Gessen's comment in parenthesis:

 “They decided which stories you were allowed to read. They decided which authors were allowed to publish. They charged high prices while withholding less expensive formats. They paid authors as little as possible.” (Actually, that last sentence is largely true.)

Gessen tosses out that the last line is true and then quickly moves on to attacking self-publishers as being silly.  But look at what he choose to quote.  He, himself, admits that it's true that big publishers pay "…authors as little as possible."  Isn't this a huge point?  If he knows it's true that big publishers pay authors as little as possible, how can big publishers be the ones protecting literature?  (And let's ignore that it's not just the last sentence that is true, all the statements in the quote are objectively true also.)  He throws this out and then doesn't comment on what he means by saying it is true.  Paying authors well doesn't matter in protecting literature?  Paying authors doesn't matter in a debate about whether Amazon is good or evil?  Doesn't whether authors are fairly paid deserve a tiny discussion in a very long "serious journalistic investigation" about protecting big publishing?  Nope, better to dismiss it with a passing smug aside.  Sure, writers get screwed, but "books" need to be protected.

Finally, it's rather hard to be taken seriously as a reporter if all you do is go to your powerful agent's office and let him rant about how Amazon is as evil as the terrorist group "ISIS," even if it is in a really prestigious New York building.  (Though it probably will help with your next traditional book deal, since your agent never bothered to email you in the past.)  So, in a moment where the reader might think that some real reporting is about to be done, Gessen details taking a trip all the way to San Bernardino, California to investigate a desert Amazon warehouse.  Anyone following this story knows why.  Amazon has been widely accused of being evil because it's warehouse workers are fainting in hot warehouses.  But Gessen makes no comment on whether or not the warehouse has air conditioning, or is too hot inside, which any real reporter should have mentioned right away.  Nor does he quote any of the workers there.  So presumably, his trip was wasted because the warehouse was cool, the workers said nice things and he couldn't attack Amazon.  But then, he had to expense the trip to Vanity Fair, so I guess he decided to comment on it anyway.  So he mentions the fact that the warehouse workers have to walk a lot.  (Like a lot of other workers, including waitresses.)

He does successfully spin his fruitless warehouse trip into his larger meme of Amazon technology destroying humanity.  The warehouse is filled with conveyer belts and docks and computers and scanners (great reporting!) and people having to hurry about to get things delivered.  We then go to testing labs where Amazon super-villians are dressed in lab coats "as if they had once worked for Dr. No."  Oops, they're not super-villians but technicians in light blue lab coats (lab coats are so sinister). It's all very long and doesn't have much point, but maybe if readers skip over it they will simply catch "desert warehouse" and "Dr. No" and assume Amazon is torturing it's warehouse workers anyway.

Amazon is as bad as ISIS and run by Dr. No.  Excellent fear mongering!


Monday, November 3, 2014

Why I Love my Amazon Paperwhite

I'm never been a fan of dedicated eReaders before.  I glanced suspiciously at the original Amazon Kindle when it came out, but it seemed too small and I didn't like the dim grayish screen.  So I never bought one or even seriously considered it.  Then I got my first iPad and the entire idea of a dedicated reader seemed moot.  I've gone through every iPad model and the Kindle app works great on it.  So there was never any reason to reconsider actual the Kindle reader.

But now that I'm about to take the plunge into self-publishing, I've being reading everything I can on the subject. A couple websites advised future Amazon booksellers to own a Kindle to check out how to properly format for it.  That seemed to make sense, so I went to Staples and found a Kindle Paperlight on sale for just under $100.



And, to my surprise as a hard core iPad fan, I really love it.  Not just for checking out Kindle formatting, but for READING.  I'm not a fast reader, I have dyslexia, so reading is always a little bit of a chore for me, especially, longer novels.  But, to my surprise, the Kindle is a much better reading device than the iPad (even the iPad mini).

For starters, Amazon has come a long way with the new Paperlight screen.  It's much brighter and closer to a pure white than the original Kindle.  While I was initially turned off by the idea of a black and white only screen, there's something very pleasant about reading on it, especially longer works.

Second, I was likewise put off by the thought of the smaller (compared to an iPad) screen.  It's only a little more than six by four inches, but it turns out to be a nice size for the amount of text it can hold.  The size makes it a lot easier to hold in one hand and it is obviously much lighter too.  So, again, it's great for reading longer works.

Then there's the battery life, which is simply amazing, particularly for such a bright screen.  It easily lasts a week or more on one charge with heavy use.  That's just a complete change from managing an iPad.  You can put it on the dresser next to your bed without a charger and pick it up to read anytime you want.  (And, like an iPad, the screen is bright enough to act as a flashlight if you need to get up and go to the bathroom after the bedroom lights are off.)  The battery life, and small size, also makes it perfect for traveling.

In terms of set up, there was little to do but type in my Amazon account information.  My Kindle library popped right up and I had little trouble figuring out how to navigate the books I already own and to buy new books.  It's all very simple and self-evident.  I also discovered it's nice to have a dedicated reading device that doesn't offer the distractions of an iPad, like email and games, particularly for me since I'm easily distracted.

I still haven't figured out if the new Kindle is just much, much better than the old one or if my original bias was unfair.  Either way, I highly recommend that readers, even if you aren't self-publishing and even if you have an iPad, give it at try.  I'm sold.

Here's a fuller review of the model I bought with all the technical details:

Amazon Kindle Paperwhite


Friday, October 24, 2014

Return of the Amazon Fear-O-Matic: Krugman & Gould


One would have hoped Amazon's new deal with Simon & Schuster would taken all the air out of the anti-Amazon's crowds efforts to portray it as the enemy of traditional publishing.  Alas, it is not so.  The fear mongering continues.  And as long as there is fear mongering, the Fear-O-Matic will continue it's important mission.

First we'll take a look at a column by noted economist Paul Krugman that ran a couple days before the Simon and Schuster announcement.  It, and Amazon bashing in general, was quickly torn apart by an excellent piece by Matthew Yglesias on Vox.  That in turn was attacked by a piece on Salon by Emily Gould who, for some reason, made no mention of the Simon & Schuster revelation.  But then, it didn't seem like she bothered to put much work into it anyway.  The best refutal of her piece is simply to reread Matthew Yglesias because she didn't present any real arguments to his excellent points other than say, "Not!"  (Click to enlarge graphics.)



AMAZON'S MONOPSONY IS NOT O.K. - FOM SCORE: 5.5

Krugman only hits a 5.5 on the Fear-O-Matic, mostly with half points for only "kinda" agreeing on the main anti-Amazon talking points.  It's clear his heart isn't in it.  But hey, he still wants those advances from the big publishers, so it was his turn to carry some water for the NY literary establishment.

FOM READING BETWEEN THE LINES:

Krugman argues Amazon isn't a monopoly, it's a "monopsony."  It isn't either, and Krugman knows it, but at least he proves he's a real economist by tossing around the word "monopsony," which sounds so much more economic than monopoly.  On non-economic matters he's even more shaky.  His main point is he feels government action is required because Amazon can be a buzz kill if it doesn't sufficiently promote the books of big publishers.  Why should Amazon be required to provide proper "buzz" for big publishers who refuse to make deals with them?  He doesn't explain.  Nor does he explain why some books should get this critical buzz and others (I guess self-published ones) don't deserve government protected buzz.  Or maybe he thinks every book should get buzz, but wouldn't it defeat the whole point of buzz if everyone got it?

There's this thing called "capitalism" that Krugman should look into now that he's got monopsony kinda covered.  It's where you pay money to get things.  The people who pay more, get more.  Like buzz, if you pay more (in advertising for example) and you get more buzz.  Maybe if the big publishers paid Amazon more money they would get more buzz?  Oops, that was the whole nature of the dispute.  So Krugman thinks Hachette shouldn't have to pay more to Amazon to get more buzz for their books?  Maybe instead of working on Amazon, the government should force Oprah to bring back Oprah's Book Club?  Or maybe TV and radio ads should be free to big publishers?  Oops, that would hurt their parent companies, who are giant media conglomerates.  Surely everyone would agree with Krugman that giant media conglomerates have no way of generating buzz unless the government steps in and forces Amazon to provide it.


VOX ON AMAZON: WAY OFF-BASE - FOM SCORE: 5.5

Gould also only makes a 5.5, less for being wishy washy like Krugman, but for being lazy and not really following up any of her arguments.  Once again, it is odd how the people writing these attack pieces seem to live in a bubble and rarely reference the larger debate or current developments.  I mean, if this is a subject that you really feel strongly about, how can you not mention what others have said about it?  Gould argues that "no one" who cares about literature and ideas can side with Amazon.  Really?  Does she really believe Hugh Howey and Joe Konrath and David Gaughran and Clay Shirky and all the seven thousand people that signed the petition against Author's United don't care about literature?  Or all the people commenting in favor of Amazon on Passive Voice?  None of them care about literature?  I mean, I get that this is just about proving you're on the side of the New York literary team.  That you don't really believe any of it, and know your pieces aren't serving any function.  But at least try to pretend you care.

FOM READING BETWEEN THE LINES:

Typical of these kind of half-baked efforts, Gould claims that Yglesias' strongest point is actually his weakest point, that Amazon already has a lot of competition in ebooks from Apple, Barnes and Noble, etc.  She says, sure, it does have a lot of competition but Amazon is winning anyway.  So she agrees with him.  What's so weak about his argument?  She admits he's completely right.  His argument is correct.  And, as he says, Amazon is winning because it is better.  She agrees.

The weak argument is hers, that for some reason, Amazon should be punished because it would simply be too hard for publishers to try to compete.  I mean, as she says, they would have to like lose money for a while and do other hard things.  Why should they have to do that?  Wouldn't it be easer if people just complained and Amazon stopped being so good at selling things?

Once Krugman gets done reading up on capitalism, maybe he can give Gould a quick lesson.

Saturday, October 18, 2014

Amazon Fear-O-Matic: Franklin Foer Edition

So the attacks on Amazon's treatment of Hachette continue to drag on, despite the fact that self-publishers are sick of talking about it and the defenders of "literature" (traditional publishing) have nothing new to say.  And by nothing, I mean absolutely nothing.

If you have any confusion about what the Amazon vs. Hachette controversy is really about, just read Clay Shirky's piece about it.  Betraying his own privileged class, he makes the persuasive argument this is simply the New York literary establishment huffing and puffing because Amazon doesn't treat them like the special snowflakes they believe they are.  Interestingly, none of the special snowflakes have argued with his conclusions, just as they rarely acknowledge all the other compelling arguments against their talking points.  That leaves them with nothing to do but regurgitate the same questioned "facts" that expose the same imaginary crisis, repeat the same flawed logic as to why anyone (but them) should care, and come to the same refuted conclusions as to the need for immediate action.  Different members of the literary establishment faithful step forward to refashion it in different "important" magazines and editorials they control, as if any of this was revelatory or newsworthy.  They seem to be hoping they will all be standing on each other's shoulders to scale the wall of public opinion, but they simply sink into the same mud hole and disappear.

The latest, with the melodramatic title "Amazon Must Be Stopped," is by Franklin Foer.  It's the cover story for the New Republic (but who would know because print is pretty much dead).  It's already been torn apart by better minds than mine.  Here's a solid fisking by self-publisher Barry Eisler.  Here's a legal take down by Maxwell S. Kennerly, Esquire.  And here's the tech perspective by Reihan Salam.

Other than an unenlightening, and inaccurate, rumination on the history of anti-trust laws, there is  nothing in Foer's piece that hasn't been covered repeatedly in previous anti-Amazon pieces.  The main talking points were argued (slightly better) by George Packer in his New Yorker Amazon hate letter, "Cheap Words," six months ago.  I pulled that apart when it first came out so it seems pointless to repeat myself now.  Packer's arguments weren't persuasive six months ago, and they aren't now with Foer plagiarizing them (or plagiarizing the others who did).

So what are we on the side of self-publishing, those of us who don't believe that Amazon is going to destroy "literature," those of us who believe Amazon is one of the best things that happened to books since the paperback novel, supposed to do?  Do we simply ignore this constant repetition of failed arguments by the New York literary elite and hope our silence won't be mistaken for agreement?  Or do we continue to repeat the same defense against the same attacks?  At this point, it's clear the special snowflakes aren't going to give up anytime soon, but it would be nice if we indies can return to the business (or hobby) of actual writing.

So to save everyone time, especially myself, I've invented the Amazon Fear-O-Matic.  Rather than arguing this nonsense beat by beat, I can just plug in the quotes and the Fear-O-Matic does the rest.  So, without further introduction, here is Foer's piece in simple graphic form (click to enlarge):


AMAZON MUST BE STOPPED - FOM SCORE: 8.5

Foer hits a solid 8.5 on the Fear-O-Matic by nailing seven out of ten anti-Amazon talking points and hinting about (for half a point each) the other three.  Excellent fear mongering!

Now that FOM has covered the basics, let's chat briefly about some of the oddities of Foer's piece.  The little original touches that allow us to read between the lines into his real thinking.

FOM READING BETWEEN THE LINES:

NOTHING ABOUT AUTHOR'S UNITED: Oddly, Foer goes way out of his way not to mention that this debate has already been raging for about six months and Douglas Preston formed a group to try to solve the very problem Foer thinks is so serious.  It's one thing not to acknowledge the arguments of your opponents, but he doesn't even mention his supporters.  Or the fact that a $100,000 full page ad was taken out in the NY Times highlighting his concerns. My conclusion from this is that the entire AU campaign is perceived as an embarrassing failure, even by the NY literary establishment, so Foer prefers not to bring it up.  Whatever his preferences, Foer's unwillingness to provide a bigger context for his argument show he isn't really serious about it at all.  He doesn't believe what he's saying, it was simply his turn (as a member of the NY establishment) to write about it.

BIG FIVE POLITICAL POWER: There's an odd mention of the fact that these giant publishing corporations, who supposedly are powerless against Amazon, have political power of their own.  The line is "Even though the five major publishing houses have political connections and economic power of their own, they just can't compete."  The line about political connections kind of comes out of nowhere and is quickly dismissed.  Why is it there?  It would have been enough to say the Big 5 don't have the economic power to stand up to Amazon (even if it isn't true).  Is this a hidden warning to Amazon?  Hey, the Big 5 have politicians and judges in their pockets like so many nickels and dimes?  Or is Foer lamenting that the Big 5 are unwilling to use their political connections to stop Amazon?  (Perhaps because what they want is so unreasonable, even politicians with juicy book deals can't agree to it.)

One explanation for the special snowflake's hysteria about Amazon is that execs at Hachette (and the other big five) have been lecturing them that if they don't do something about Amazon, the big publishers will be forced to punish them by cutting advances and promotion and embracing all those smart self-publishers who don't demand special treatment.  In other words, the real threats are coming from the big publishers through the NY agents to the trad writers (and their literary supporters).  "If you guys don't save yourselves, don't expect us to save you."  This sounds pretty plausible to me.  So Foer's comment about big five political power might be a reveal that the traditional publishers have already told the special snowflakes that they are on their own.

THE BIG FIVE MIGHT CUT ADVANCES:  Foer also oddly states that publishers might be forced to cut advances, and that will end literature as we know it.  It's a very strange argument, as others have pointed out.  First, there's obviously no connection to advances and great literature (big advances usually go to politicians, thus the big five's political clout, and celebrities like Snooki).  Obviously, great literature was written in the past without advances and clearly will be in the future.  So why does Foer focus so much on advances?  Perhaps because advances are exactly the kind of perks that the NY establishment loves.  They aren't connected to actual sales.  They are simply rewarded to the favored.  Like, say, when the editor of the New Republic writes a little book on the side.  Like say, Foer's book on soccer and economics.  The kind of books one really shouldn't expect to compete in the messy real world for readers and royalties based on sales.  Isn't it better that those kind of books are given a nice advance check so the writer feels they accomplished something and can quickly return back to their journalistic musings about why advances are so important to literature?

Overall, some nice fear mongering laced with hidden hints about the pressure the Big Five is applying to a terrified NY literary elite.  For comparison, let's quickly see how it stacks up to George Packer's original anti-Amazon piece.  After all, he also seemed awfully worried that fine journalists like himself might miss out on those book advances:


CHEAP WORDS - FOM SCORE: 7.5

Packer's piece scores a 7.5 FOM, which is high but not as good as Foer.  But, in fairness, Packer's article supposedly wasn't an opinion piece and had to at least pretend to be following some journalist standards.  Because of that, Packer only hinted Amazon was a monopoly (because, by any objective standard, it clearly isn't).  Moreover, Packer's job was to set the stage with "serious reporting" so others could jump in and demand government action to solve the "problems" he supposedly uncovered.  So he lost a point there.  Finally, he didn't touch on the idea that Amazon would turn on self-publishers and that cost him a full point too.  But, also in fairness, Amazon turning on self-publishers does seem to be the one new idea that took a little time to percolate with the anti-Amazon crowd.  So Parker had a disadvantage cutting the trail others would follow.  All in, solid fear mongering that set the standard for what has come since.